Quantcast
Channel: » San Diego Padres
Viewing all articles
Browse latest Browse all 4

Carlos Quentin: Fun with Park Factors

0
0

I know I’ve been writing a lot about the Padres recently.  First was the analysis of the underrated Will Venable.  Then there was the article looking at how Petco Park will affect Edinson Volquez’s numbers.  Next, there was the post identifying ideal hitters who could play at Petco without losing too much value.

For whatever reason, I’ve become intrigued by the Padres and their home park.  I don’t know why.  But I just am.

Photo Courtesy of Keith Allison via Flickr.com

The Padres and their new GM, Josh Byrnes, took a lot of criticism for their acquisition of White Sox slugger Carlos Quentin, and understandably so.  Quentin, first off, has never really been a model of picture perfect health.  He’s topped 500 plate appearances twice in his career, and has only played in 478 games since 2008, an average of 120 games per season.  Unsurprisingly, at least considering his track record, he recently underwent arthroscopic knee surgery and hopes to make it back by Opening Day.

Fine. From that standpoint it may not have been the most logical deal for the Padres.  There’s no DH, a vast outfield, and a ballpark better suited for fly ball pitchers.  Something was eventually going to give.

Also not helping matters is the fact that he’s scheduled to be a free agent after 2012; another issue that tends to swing the pendulum away from the Padres’ favor.

Oh, yeah, Quentin turns 30-years-old, has what Bill James would refer to as “old-man skills”, and plays terrible defense, something that’s only going to worsen with age.

So, yes, the deal may not have been the most prudent move for a rebuilding franchise.  Teams make unfavorable moves all the time.  But the fact is the deal is done.  Nothing can undo it.

But there is one thing that plays fairly well into the Padres favor: According to the park factors found on StatCorner.com, Quentin is the exact type of hitter the team needs.  He’s a right-handed slugger who excels through the long ball – the HR park factor for right-handers is 96, only slightly below average – and also draws a decent amount of walks too, either by base on balls or HBPs.  Left-handed power hitters are the ones that will be more impacted by Petco, not right-handers.

So, the real question is: What would Quentin’s numbers look like if he played half his games in San Diego?

His numbers from last season were a bit of an oddity considering his career norms.  For whatever reason, and chalk it up to nothing more than a statistical anomaly, but he mashed on the road and floundered at U.S. Cellular Field, the White Sox’s home park.  His production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 64% better than the league average on the road and 13% below the average at home.  The year before, 2010, the numbers were almost reversed, 50% better at home and 20% below the average on the road, totals more indicative of his career norms.

So instead of just adjusting his 2011 numbers, we’ll look at his 2010 numbers too.

First, his numbers at U.S. Cellular Field:

  • 2010: 276 PA, 233 AB, 34 1B, 9 2B, 1 3B, 19 HR, 28 BB, 38 SO, 14 HBP, 1SF, .270/.380/.562
  • 2011: 244 PA, 210 AB, 24 1B, 14 2B, 0 3B, 7 HR, 21 BB, 50 SO, 9 HBP, 4 SF, .214/.307/.381

Next, adjusted to a neutral park

  • 2010: 276 PA, 233 AB, 36 1B, 9 2B, 2 3B, 14 HR, 24 BB, 37 SO, 13 HBP, 1SF, .261/.362/.498
  • 2011: 244 PA, 210 AB, 25 1B, 14 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 18 BB, 49 SO, 8 HBP, 4 SF, .209/.292/.348

The third step is to adjust for Petco Park:

  •  2010: 276 PA, 233 AB, 35 1B, 6 2B, 2 3B, 13 HR, 26 BB, 41 SO, 14 HBP, 1SF, .240/.350/.451
  • 2011: 244 PA, 210 AB, 24 1B, 10 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 19 BB, 54 SO, 8 HBP, 4 SF, .186/.274/.305

Finally, his overall triple-slash numbers (combined home and road splits for each year):

  • 2010: .228/.326/.434
  • 2011: .240/.323/.461

While Quentin may be the exact type of hitter – a right-hander power threat – needed to succeed in Petco; he is, in fact, a poor fit for Petco.

There’s no reason to believe that Quentin would outperform his 2011 numbers, the better of the two, going forward.  And that’s not very good production for the price he’s likely to command following this season.  You’ve been warned, Mr. Byrnes.

 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

For attempted humor, snarky comments, and baseball updates follow the site on Twitter, @ReleasePoints.

For scouting reports click here.

For more baseball analysis check out the the the site’s homepage here Archives tab here.

 


Tagged: 2012, Carlos Quentin, MLB, Petco Park, San Diego Padres

Viewing all articles
Browse latest Browse all 4

Latest Images

Trending Articles





Latest Images